Somalia Update

Somalia has not had a central government in 15 years. Now two groups are vying for governmental control. Will the groups find peace or is Somalia on the verge of civil war?

In September 2005, Kevin Sites witnessed the results of 14 years of anarchy in Somalia: a mother whose daughter was crushed by a fallen U.S. helicopter; opposing answers about the presence of al-Qaida in the country; and the burgeoning possibility of Somalia becoming an Islamic state.

In reporting from the chaos of Mogadishu, Sites discovered that the only constant there is that the gun rules.

 

A year later, Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) has risen to power over the southern part of the country, including the capital of Mogadishu. The U.N.-recognized Transitional Federal Government (TFG), led by President Abdullahi Yusuf, has been forced to run its operations in the city of Baidoa.

 

The chaos caused by gun-wielding militias in Mogadishu has decreased, as the UIC enforces Islamic law. This practice has many observers warning of a new Taliban-like regime in Africa. And, the group has been accused of harboring wanted al-Qaida terrorists — a claim it denies.

But the UIC's rule is a questionable one and may be short-lived. With reports of scattered violence and the assassination of a high-ranking TFG official, the feuding Islamic rulers and members of the Yusuf government are poised to begin a civil war.

Early this month, negotiators for the two factions met for peace talks with mixed results. The parties discussed power sharing, peacekeepers and a new Somali constitution, with the sides unable to form a consensus.

Somalia's instability is not only a threat to its citizens, but also poses a major threat to the region and possibly the world, analysts warn. As the International Crisis Group reported in August of this year: "Unless the crisis is contained, it threatens to draw in a widening array of state actors, foreign jihadi Islamists and al-Qaida."

The nature of Somalia's war-torn landscape may have changed, but today's feuding factions may prove as deadly as the militias Sites saw one year ago.